Africa's population - a mounting tide
By Kwasi Osei Kufuor, University of Liberia
Africa's population problems continue to be a cause for concern to various governments which cannot reconcile the rapid increase in population with the slow growth in the economy, resulting in a lower standard of living and its attendant problems to development. The writer explains why.Mankind seems to be living in fear of the rate of reproduction of its own species. Amidst the present deplorable world economic situation and the constant threat posed by armament the world is also faced with a mounting population tide. The present world population, estimated at 4.75 billion by the World Bank, is expected to reach about 6 billion by the end of the century and 8.3 billion by the first quarter of the 21st century.
Even though recent estimates indicate that world population growth rate has fallen from about 2.1 per cent in the 1960s to an average of about 1.7 per cent in the 1980s, it is widely believed that this does not reflect a fair view of present global demographic trends since the reduction resulted mainly from China's drastic population control measures and the gradual reduction in the growth rates of the industrialised countries.
On the contrary, very high growth rates exist in Africa, and other parts of the Third World. The disturbing aspect of the population problem is that about 90 per cent of the projected future increase in world population will occur in the Third World where hunger, malnutrition, and poverty already abound.
Africa's rapid population growth over the last two decades has given much cause for concern. With a population of over 500 million people, which constitute between 10 to 15 percent of world total, Africa appears, at least at the onset, not to face much population of over 500 million people, fact that its land area represents some 20 percent of the world's total land surface. However, much of the area is desert, semi-desert or swamp and which therefore makes them unsuitable for either human or settlement agricultural purposes.
Africa's growth rates are the highest in the world, at an average of between 2.5 and 3 per cent. Birth rates are around 50 per 1000 with the average number of children per woman being 5 or 6. Kenya with a current population of about 20 million people, is said to have a growth rate of 4 per cent - the world's highest. It is estimated that Kenya's population will reach an unprecedented 83 million by the first quarter of the next century. In like manner, Nigeria's present population of 96 million is expected to reach an incredible 359 million by the first quarter of the next century. Similar situations exist almost everywhere in Africa with countries like Ghana, Egypt, Ethiopia, Morocco and Algeria. Nowhere in Africa is the growth rate less than 2 per cent. Ghana's population census in March, 1984, showed a current population of 12 million from a previous 8 million in 1970. Even so, hundreds of thousands of Ghanaians outside the country were not accounted for.
Very high fertility rates coupled with a fall in mortality rates have mainly contributed to the surge in the continent's population. High birth rates in Africa are rooted on cultural and traditional beliefs. For instance, in traditional African societies, having a large number of children is considered a blessing and women's status in society usually depends on the number of children they have.
With many African countries currently facing severe food shortages, it is difficult to imagine how they can manage with a double of the present population in the future. Food imports by African countries are rising each year in view of poor domestic agricultural performance. However, since these countries are already loaded with fantastic debts, they are not able to import enough to satisfy the ever growing domestic demand.
High rate of population growth will place a heavy burden on arable land and consequently on food supplies. Since agriculture is mainly traditional, too many people will mean division of land into too many small holdings which will reduce efficiency and further worsen the food situation. Also recent climatic changes in Africa which seem to be turning equatorial regions into semi-deserts makes the future more uncertain.
Multiple births sap the energies of the already overworked.
It is estimated that about 3 percent of the Gross National Product (GNP) of African countries is annually absorbed by the rapid population growth. Consequently, the Gross National Product (GNP) of such countries is supposed to grow by more than 3 per cent annually in real terms if present living standards are to be maintained. However, it is sad to note that many of them are experiencing a stagnant or even negative economic growth.
Without doubt the growth of population in Africa will remain one of the biggest development issues till the end of the century. It is the future that needs to be addressed in order to halt further losses in living standards.
A significant feature accompanying the population increase has been the rapid expansion in urbanisation all over the continent. Thousands of jobless youths are crowding the cities each day in search of non-existent jobs. The age composition of the African population is such that about 46 per cent of the total population is under 15 years of age. As these people gradually come of age and enter the working age group, this places enormous pressure on employment, housing, and other vital resources.
It has been estimated that between the years 1980 and 2000 the number of young adults between the ages of 20-39 years in the Third World will increase by about 600 million while the same for the developed world would be 20 million. These 600 million young people will be hunting for jobs and raising families. This, certainly, will worsen the already high unemployment and political problems.
Several African cities with formerly very small population now have double or triple their 1960 figures. Cairo, Africa's largest city, has a present population of around 12 million people compared to just about 5.5 million in the 70s. Growth rates in African cities are expected to vary from 6 to 10 percent by the end of the century. Not surprisingly, there has been a rapid spread of slums, poverty and crime in these cities.
Other population-induced problems such as environmental devastation and increased illiteracy rates also need to be underscored. Poor and inadequate educational facilities deprives a greater proportion of the population of the right to education. However proper education is necessary to ensure a successful population control.
Asia and Africa have almost similar demographic patterns. However, unlike Asia which has been highly populated for a very long time, much of Africa was initially sparsely populated, perhaps due to climatic and other historical factors like the slave trade. The slave trade alone is said to have taken about more than 1 million people out of the continent. The population issue is therefore a new phenomenon for African countries.
However, most Asian countries have managed to achieve a significant reduction in their fertility rates during the past decade largely through improved family planning strategies. Thailand, for example, is said to have been highly successful in controlling its birth rates. On the other hand, Africa's growth rates are considered to be the highest in the world today. The continent's population is expected to double itself by the end of the century. Family planning schemes are poorly organised and in many cases lack effective government support.
Without doubt, the growth of population in Africa will remain one of the biggest development issues till the end of the century. It is the future that needs to be addressed in order to halt further losses in living standards and avoid possible widespread famine, malnutrition, and poverty.
Fortunately, most governments have already recognised the need for population control. African However it is their support of family planning schemes that has been greatly inadequate. Provision of information on family planning methods need to be given special programme in order to make possible a healthy population with a reduced fertility.
The role of women in African societies will also be very crucial towards the success or otherwise of population control. Women in traditional African societies do not have much influence on child-bearing decisions. However if their status in society could be accepted by men and accordingly be made part of child- bearing decisions, the fertility issue would cease to be too much of a problem.
All the above notwithstanding, the overall development of an economy will serve as the best solution for excessive population growth. Development in terms of infrastruc- ture, education, health, and culture are necessary to ensure better living standards and further reduce mortality rates. People will no longer need to bear so many children to serve as future security. However it is interesting to note that the rapid increases in population in itself have impeded the achievement of such a level of development.
What is needed now are policies effectively designed to ensure reduced fertility and mortality and which also stresses women's role and education.
